French Grand Prix preview and race prediction
In a few days the riders will begin racing again, this time at Le Man’s Bugatti Circuit. Known for its slippery surface – not least because it often rains – and stop/start nature, it’s a tricky old track, and one where it’s going to be hard to call a winner. Here’re the results from the last five years.
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
| 2012 | Jorge Lorenzo | Valentino Rossi | Casey Stoner |
| 2011 | Casey Stoner | Andrea Dovizioso | Valentino Rossi |
| 2010 | Jorge Lorenzo | Valentino Rossi | Andrea Dovizioso |
| 2009 | Jorge Lorenzo | Marco Melandri | Dani Pedrosa |
| 2008 | Valentino Rossi | Jorge Lorenzo | Colin Edwards |
A few things stand out. One, that Jorge Lorenzo looks to be the strongest rider of recent years at the circuit, with three wins and a second place. Two, that a fair number of riders have managed to make it to the podium (seven actually, when at Jerez only four riders in the last five years got into the top three), so we could be in for a rather random podium again. And three, that Dani Pedrosa doesn’t have great history at Le Man on a MotoGP machine with a 3rd place in 2009 his only result on the podium.
Looking at the past results it seems clear that Lorenzo is likely to take a race win. If the weather’s bad, things might not go his way so much with the skills of Rossi, but last year was wet, and he pulled it off. Pedrosa’s wet weather riding has come on leaps and bounds too, so if it gets murky, he could be in with a shout. And, if there does end up being water on the track, we could see a Ducati sneak up into a podium position too.
Of course, wet weather would also suit Cal Crutchlow. His bike is down on power compared to the factory prototypes, and rain would equal that out. He’s been on fire so far this year, and while he hasn’t had a strong result in MotoGP round the Bugatti Circuit yet, he could sniff out a win if the heavens open.
What of Marc Marquez? Well, he’s not ridden a MotoGP machine round the track yet, so could experience some difficulties in re-learning lines. It hasn’t stopped him too much in the past though, and looking at his Moto2 results, he definitely knows his way around, grabbing a pole in 2012 and a win the year before.
Come rain or shine, the top five riders must surely make it into the top five positions. Let’s hope for some sun, and the result will probably go with Jorge Lorenzo. He’s still fuming about Marquez’s overtake, is dynamite round the track, and will be more fired up than ever to bounce back. Second goes to Valentino Rossi. He’s not been on form yet this season, and Le Man is a track he’s always done well at. He should be honing in on a setup he likes by now, and can start making the most of his late breaking style at the twisty Bugatti track. Since Pedrosa has only the one podium finish in five years, he’s the weakest of the established riders, but after his impressive display in Jerez, a third is the least he can expect. Marc Marquez should nab fourth, his lack of experience holding him back, and because we’re hoping for a dry track Crutchlow will sneak into the top five but no further.
1st – Lorenzo
2nd – Rossi
3rd – Pedrosa
4th – Marquez
5th – Crutchlow
Motothoughts 